Polymarket is currently forecasting just a 35% chance that a Solana ETF will get the green light before July 31, 2025. While that might not seem promising, major players like VanEck, Grayscale, and 21Shares aren’t backing down. These financial giants are still pushing their ETF applications forward, despite facing a regulatory minefield.

Why the Low Odds?

A big part of the problem is the SEC’s stance on Solana (SOL). The agency has classified it as a security in ongoing lawsuits, which complicates everything. This label makes it tough for Solana-based products to fit neatly into the current regulatory framework. Naturally, that’s spooking the markets and making ETF approval even trickier.

Major Players Still Betting on Solana

Even with the odds stacked against them, VanEck, Grayscale, and 21Shares aren’t walking away. Their Solana ETF applications are still pending, and we should see some initial SEC decisions rolling in later this month.

Interestingly, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Research, believes the 35% probability might be too low. He’s pointing to bipartisan progress on crypto regulations, suggesting the market may be underestimating the chances of approval.

A Rollercoaster of Expectations

At first, things looked more optimistic. The appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair and expectations of a crypto-friendly Trump administration had investors feeling hopeful. But with regulatory delays piling up, that optimism has started to fade.

So, will a Solana ETF actually get approved by July 31? The odds say probably not, but in crypto, surprises are always around the corner. Stay tuned.